2023 Year-End Review and 2024 New Year Outlook

Posted on Edited on In Disqus:

Reposted from my blog

A European desk for the 2023 year-end review

The Christmas holiday is approaching, and the Microsoft Ireland office has long been filled with a festive atmosphere. Decorations everywhere, Christmas trees and Santa Claus ornaments: Christmas really is Ireland’s biggest holiday. Ireland gives two days off for Christmas, December 25 and 26, one more day than the US. More people, especially colleagues from Christian countries, take annual leave around the holiday to go home and spend it with family. So December is a relatively relaxed working period, and everyone is quite laid-back.

There is still half a month before the new year, and my life and thoughts probably will not change during this time. Quite a few friends are also looking forward to my year-end review. It has already become an annual fixed program. From 2017 to now, this is already the seventh year.

Previous year-end reviews:

Milestone reviews:

These important blog posts are all under the Diary category on my blog.

A year of work, travel, and life in Europe

2023 Personal Review

Unlike the previous few years, perhaps because of the three-year pandemic, time felt like it flew by. Every year passed quickly, and it was hard to tell what year it was anymore. This year, time felt a little slower, probably because I changed environments, work was relatively relaxed, and I had more time for travel and reading, which added many memories and thoughts. Also this year, life went through some dramatic changes. I faintly feel that this may be a turning point for the next few years, a new starting point.

Work

This year’s economic environment, both in the West and in China, was full of serious tests.

After the pandemic ended in the West in 2022, consumption rebounded. Combined with years of quantitative easing and excessive money printing, plus the Russia-Ukraine war, severe inflation emerged. It was second only to the high inflation of the 1970s oil crisis. How serious was inflation? In the year since I came to Ireland, I could already feel a 10% price increase, or shrinkflation, in supermarkets. That is not even comparing with pre-pandemic prices.

The US, Europe, and the UK raised interest rates crazily, and only stopped around mid-2023. Inflation was controlled, but prices merely stopped rising madly; what had already risen would not fall back.

Unlike the long-term “stagflation” of the 1970s, this round of inflation did not last very long, and the economies of developed countries did not stagnate. On the contrary, they were still thriving.

Reflected in big tech companies: during the pandemic, offline consumption shrank, online demand surged, and abundant confidence from quantitative easing made internet companies’ revenue grow quickly. Most company leadership teams believed the growth was sustainable and expanded hiring crazily. In 2021, huge packages were flying everywhere. Interview today, offer tomorrow. Big companies hired by the tens of thousands, and some departments expanded by two or three times, hiring the people they would need for the next two or three years in advance. In that situation, it was actually hard to stay rational. If you did not hire, others were hiring crazily. Whoever expanded hiring was favored by Wall Street; whoever was favored saw their stock price rise. US stocks also reached what was then an all-time high at the end of 2021. As I write this at the end of 2023, US stocks have also recovered and reached new highs again.

By 2022, the pandemic ended, offline activity recovered, online demand pulled back, and interest rate hikes reduced capital. US stocks fell all the way. IT companies started hiring freezes again, followed by the crazy layoffs in the first half of 2023. This time it reversed: whoever laid off people was favored by Wall Street, and their stock price rose. Although layoffs affected the US most, after all US programmers have high income and therefore high company cost, Ireland was also affected. My HC was cut and given to another department. But that other department actually had no one in Ireland, so another colleague and I were assigned to the nearest group, in Israel.

My work therefore changed dramatically. The Work-Life Balance I originally took for granted, humane management, rest & vest, Growth, and Diversity were all gone. They were replaced by micro-management, Agile, an entire group of Jewish colleagues, and Hebrew. The workload directly doubled, the new manager was still dissatisfied, and the salary stayed the same. My old manager often praised me and encouraged my output and work. The old team was in the US, with an eight-hour time difference, so mornings were very relaxed. We had one standup per week. The new team, because of the two-hour time difference, has a standup at 8:30 every morning, so there is no chance to sleep in. I used to freeload office fitness classes every day; later I had no time. The old manager had 1:1s every two weeks. The new manager has two 1:1s every week, both about projects. The old team had plenty of national and racial diversity, with people from different countries and a few very nice Chinese colleagues. In the new team, besides me and another Belarusian colleague who had previously been in Ireland with me, everyone is Jewish. The old manager had been at Microsoft for 30 years. His main energy was managing up, blocking bad work, pulling in good work, and he had several Principal and Senior engineers under him. The new manager has been at Microsoft for two years, joined during the expansion period, is not good at managing up, manages down every day, has few people under him, and the only Senior is on maternity leave. I have never even seen her. In the old team, everyone had their own long-term major project. In the new team, we have been doing small tasks and bug fixes with no impact. The US handed marginal projects to Israel, and the Israeli manager handed dirty and tiring work to Ireland. From my first 1:1 with the new manager, I felt something was wrong. He talked to me about his Principles (he really is not suited to Microsoft; he should go to Amazon), his three children, and his midlife crisis at 40. Chinese people are probably sensitive to this, because of the domestic 35-year-old crisis.

It really felt like going from heaven to hell. First half of the year: heaven. Second half: hell. When I first came to Microsoft Ireland, I felt that Microsoft’s reputation and European work culture were well deserved. It was amazing. Now I receive an Irish salary, pay Ireland’s high taxes, and work for Israel. It feels terrible.

This year, the company also used poor performance and layoffs as reasons to cancel the general salary adjustment. The office cafeteria also raised prices by 10%. Everything’s price rises crazily, except salary.

The only comfort is that US stocks rose very well this year, represented by the Magnificent Seven in tech: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia. When I was looking for jobs last year, I encountered hiring freezes and missed many opportunities, also taking a lot of risk. But the benefit of joining despite the hiring freeze is that the stock price was relatively low. It has already risen 50% this year.

When I joined Amazon in 2021, the stock price was $170, before the 20-for-1 split, so actually $3400. I was really standing guard at the high point. Even though it has risen for a year from the low of $85, it has only reached $150 now. Might as well restart directly.

Even worse, because of tech layoffs and foreign companies withdrawing from China, in September this year, my previous group of dozens of people was entirely laid off, although with a generous N+6 compensation package. My experiences these two years really are: “A loss may turn out to be a gain.”

China’s economy is marked by deflation. But we still need to sing loudly about the bright prospects of China’s economy. The bitterness and meme in this sentence may only be understood by Chinese people at the end of 2023.

For the development and problems of China’s economy over the past 30 years, I recommend Professor Lan Xiaohuan’s new book: 置身事内: 中国政府与经济发展 (Within the System: China’s Government and Economic Development). You can also listen to a previous episode of the podcast “忽左忽右”: “269 Tao Ran on Land Finance and the Future of Economic Growth.” The author does not dare to expand further.

Relationship

I hesitated a lot about whether to write this section, because opening the wound, remembering and reviewing these things, is extremely painful. But I think I should still leave some words, giving this three-year relationship a complete full stop.

Because memories are shaped, words can also leave good memories and help forget pain.

There were mainly three reasons for the breakup:

  • Long distance: I worked in Ireland, and she studied in the Netherlands.
  • Incompatible personalities: I am ISFJ, the Defender; she is ENTP, the Debater, plus severe ADHD.
  • Different goals for future life: I want “wife, children, and a warm kang”; she fears marriage and childbirth.

These three reasons are actually interconnected and causal.

Three years together, from student to work, from Beijing to Europe. It was also my first long-term intimate relationship. From it, I learned a lot: how to create romance and celebrate holidays; how to take care of someone; how to resolve conflicts and contradictions, especially in close relationships; how to appreciate, encourage, and heal; and more importantly, I understood myself better, knowing what I truly want, what I need, and what I am capable of.

Even the healing stage after the breakup was a process of learning, reflection, and growth. The loss after the breakup also made me better realize the value of family and friends.

Five years ago, my first love went to the US to study. At that time, I had neither the ability nor the courage to solve the long-distance problem. A 12/13-hour time difference really is half the earth apart. I did not even dare to make promises or draw a future. Instead, I chose the simple solution of breaking up, full of regret. Years later, I finally had both the ability and the courage to go anywhere in the world. So when heaven threw a similar problem at me again, I chose to come to Europe without hesitation to accompany her study, and successfully came to Ireland.

But in the end, this relationship still failed. I once again experienced that heart-rending, unforgettable feeling. Just like in 潜伏, when Yu Zecheng learns of Cuiping’s death, under extreme grief, a person retches and can do nothing. During that period, it felt like every song was singing about me, and every song was so sad and full of emotion. I also understood that long distance is only one obstacle in intimate relationships. There are many other problems to solve and manage. Although my ability and understanding have improved a lot over time, they are still not enough.

Here are a few books I recommend to everyone, if you yearn for a good intimate relationship:

  • The Evolution of Desire: Strategies of Human Mating. Many principles in it match intuition very well. The author integrates them together, benefiting everyone, men and women alike. I wish I had encountered it earlier. This book systematically explains the psychology and evolutionary background of human mating. It is enlightening. If I had read it earlier, my previous courtship and love life would have gone much more smoothly. The knowledge points that impressed me include casual sex and long-term relationships, male and female mating needs, breakup methods and pain, how to build a long-term marriage, extramarital affairs, mate switching, and the evolutionary psychology of rape. It covers a wide range of aspects and takes into account the needs and stages of different people. Especially when mapped to my own previous experiences of courtship, love, and breakup, it explained many of my confusions. Although I had unconsciously practiced some strategies from the book before, it was only after reading it that I truly realized the principles and universality behind them. It seems that many sexual strategies really are written into our genes. I should reread it often in the future, and with theory’s help, realize my life ideal: to win one heart and never part until white hair.
  • How to Not Die Alone. As a bestseller, the English version is not difficult and is relatively easy to read. The book talks about dating principles and concrete methods from many aspects. Although it mainly uses American research and experience, it is also applicable elsewhere, especially Europe. I really wish I had read it earlier. If I had read it earlier, although it was only published in 2021, I could have taken fewer detours and wasted less youth and emotion. I have some of Romanticizer, Maximizer, and Hesitater. Overthinking is also obvious. I am clearly avoidant attached, not anxious. A Hitcher rather than a Ditcher. There are also traits to focus on when looking for a long-term partner. I cannot continue being love-brained and overly sympathetic.
  • Eight Dates: Essential Conversations for a Lifetime of Love. Just as the subtitle says, this book teaches everyone how to “create a lifetime of intimate relationship,” especially by having conversations and exchanges with a partner, deeply discussing key topics. It is not about how to find a partner, but more about how to manage the relationship better after finding one.

Life

This year, living in Ireland, work has been much lighter than in China, so I had plenty of spare time. In addition, being single again saved more time and energy. Of course, walking alone is fast, walking together is far. Although one person can grow quickly, in the long run, one still needs a partner to stay with for life. Therefore:

I read many books this year, almost 50. You can refer to my Douban. I wrote short reviews for every book, and for some books that gave me many thoughts, I also wrote longer reviews.

Later, to protect my eyes, I specifically bought a Kindle. Unlike the old joke that Kindle is a noodle-pressing device, I think Kindle is the most worthwhile item I bought this year. Mainly because I have had the habit of reading since childhood: borrowing books from the library in school, reading ebooks on a computer after work. Microsoft also has a yearly 500-euro reimbursement allowance encouraging everyone to learn and improve their knowledge, body, and mental health, and ebook readers are included.

This year I went to many places and met many friends.

When I first came last year, I applied for a Netherlands visa. See my experience applying for a Netherlands visa. At the beginning of the year, I went to the Netherlands to visit my ex after four months of long distance. Later I also applied for a UK visa myself and went to the UK twice. I went to Sheffield to see my cousin studying for a master’s degree; went to Cambridge to have meals with Lai Bo and Ma Ge and visited Microsoft Research Cambridge, MSRC; went to London to visit Google, once my dream company, thanks to Ding Yu’s hospitality, Amazon’s office, thanks to Hao Ge and Yang Ge, and UCL, thanks to Haoyang. I also wrote a France visa slot monitoring bot, helping myself and many friends get France visa appointments. I went to Paris to see Congcong, my high school classmate and also a high-energy physics talent, and had a meal with Da Qiang Ge. I went to Stockholm, Sweden to visit Shi Ge, although I was stood up, and made a pilgrimage to the Nobel Prize Museum. I went to Athens, Greece to meet Lei Ge and Flathead Ge in person. I went to Malta by piggybacking on an academic conference, recalling the green years of campus life.

This year I also met many new friends and talked with them.

They came from different countries, different backgrounds and classes, different ages and life experiences. Thank them for providing emotional value, social needs, useful information, and practical help, especially when I was emotionally low or needed help.

Through this firsthand contact, I better understood the importance and value of Diversity and Inclusion promoted by international big companies, or by so-called “white left” politics. It is not just political correctness; it is indeed progress, and it does promote productivity and human civilization.

Compared with my thoughts on “political correctness” one year ago, in a blog post written late last year, my understanding is now deeper and further along. I have also further escaped previous prejudices and cultural imprints.

I realized very early that my problem was not reading and learning too little, but thinking too little. As the ancient saying goes: “Learning without thinking leads to confusion.” In fact, I have been subconsciously trying to change.

The root cause is also the broader environment. Friends educated in China should feel this, especially those from small cities. This exam-oriented education discourages independent thinking from childhood. It encourages listening to teachers and parents, and after growing up, listening to bosses and the government. The most criticized areas are Chinese language and other humanities education. Subjective questions have standard answers and are graded point by point. People who love thinking and self-learning are suppressed in this environment, forced to accept cramming and shaping. Especially in places with backward educational resources, teachers’ levels are actually not high. Many graduated from junior colleges; bachelor’s degrees are already considered good. What Luo Yonghao said in his speech “My Struggle” resonates with me a lot.

Later, I also understood the more fundamental reason why this is hard to change: history and system. Suppressing thinking benefits rulers, although it is harmful to society, civilization, and individuals.

Chinese history is long, stretching four thousand years.

Before the Qin dynasty, under the feudal system, there were the Hundred Schools of Thought. There was a lot of thinking and competition. Since Qin, China has mainly been a unified centralized state, Legalist inside and Confucian outside, mainly controlling people’s thoughts for the emperor’s use. Therefore, independent thinking was not encouraged; obedience and acceptance of indoctrinated thought were encouraged. Since the Song dynasty, Neo-Confucianism, an extreme form of Confucian thought, appeared. From then on, Confucianism truly dominated alone, without constraint.

Later, centralization even evolved into totalitarianism. Under that condition, any thinking and self-learning became reactionary and required paying an enormous price.

After “setting things right,” the situation improved somewhat, but the problem was never fundamentally solved.

Since this year, because of the change in environment, I have gained more freedom to think. Combined with my long-standing habit of loving learning, the effect has been astonishing, sometimes even frightening to myself.

A peaceful outlook for a better life in 2024

Yearning for a Good Life in 2024

Actually, my New Year wishes every year are similar: work, body, mental health, and learning.

Leave Asia for Europe, and later leave Europe for America

Friends familiar with me, or readers who have read my previous year-end reviews and blog posts, may know that the main reason I came to Europe last year was to accompany study. Before I came to Ireland last year, I had never thought about coming to Ireland, and had not even considered this country. In fact, after meeting many friends in Ireland, I was surprised to find that Ireland is such a quiet, magical little country. There are many outsiders in Dublin, but everyone came to Ireland accidentally for all kinds of strange reasons. Very few people treated Ireland as their first choice from the beginning. For example, many students applied to Irish schools only as a side option, with the UK as their priority. When I looked for jobs last year, I mainly applied to the Netherlands and applied to Ireland on the side. People did not know much about Ireland before; they only started learning deeply after getting offers. When I left home last year, relatives and friends did not know where Ireland was, and many thought it was still part of the UK.

Perhaps it is exactly this information gap that makes Ireland a value depression. There are many study and work opportunities here, but not many people know about them, so competition is not that fierce. Most people, whether planning to settle down or using Ireland as a stepping stone, come for these good study and work opportunities.

If you want to know more about the experience of moving from China to Ireland, you can refer to my previous blog: From Beijing to Dublin, A Programmer’s Journey to Europe and podcast. Friends in China can also listen on Xiaoyuzhou.

Therefore, after breaking up with my ex in the first half of the year, I was in an awkward situation in Ireland. I could neither advance nor retreat. I had nowhere to go and no home. Returning to China was definitely impossible, and I would also feel embarrassed to go back. When I went abroad, my family did not really agree, and I stubbornly came out anyway. Moreover, I still have dreams not yet realized: the ideal life of “two acres of thin farmland, one ox, wife, children, and a warm kang.” Obviously this is much easier to realize in developed countries. The direction of China’s reforms in recent years has also disappointed and worried me. Since I cannot help the world, I can only cultivate myself.

Ireland is quite suitable for living, especially for family life. The natural environment is good and very quiet. Although welfare may be worse than the Nordics, it is still a welfare state and much better than the US, Singapore, Hong Kong, and China. Job opportunities and salaries are also good, especially for IT workers. It is top-tier in Europe. Aside from London and Switzerland, other places are worse.

But things here are a bit too laid-back. People with ambition are still more suited to developing in the US. It is a bit like Tian Ji’s horse racing. The top horses all went to the US, leaving medium horses in Ireland, or students who prefer lying flat. Therefore, working and living in Ireland are both very relaxed. It is a good time to rest for these few years, learn and think more, understand the world, and more importantly, understand myself.

From 2018 to 2020, I always wanted to develop in the US. Later, after setting the goal of coming to Europe in 2020, I still wanted to treat Europe as a stepping stone and eventually go to the US. But at that time, this “American dream” was based on relatively primitive and simple reasons.

  1. US salary is extremely attractive. For programmers, it obviously exceeds other countries, including China, Europe, Japan, and Singapore, roughly twice Europe. Ireland’s salary is already considered high in Europe, but it is still far from the US. There are many opportunities, including work, education, and making money, which is the so-called “American dream.”
  2. Many excellent people I know went to the US. Many people also have the American dream. Great minds think alike.
  3. The strong export of American culture. Movies and TV shows are the most obvious. They basically dominate, and the quality is especially good. All other countries combined can hardly compete. Less obvious, but more important, is the book publishing industry. I read a lot. Whether computer professional books or general education books, most are produced in the US and written in English. Notably, many authors were not born in the US or are second-generation immigrants. Their American dream stories inspire generation after generation. For example, AI goddess Fei-Fei Li, a second-generation Chinese immigrant, published a new book this year: The Worlds I See.

This year, through more reading, thinking, and conversation, I gained a deeper understanding of the “American dream.” It is actually consistent with my previous simple understanding, but deeper and more internal.

Why are US salaries so attractive, especially in the computer industry?

The US is the origin and center of the computer industry, with long-standing historical advantages and monopolies in many parts of the computer industry. Information technology represents today’s most advanced productive forces, greatly improving efficiency and human productivity. Therefore, it creates a lot of value. This value spills over. First, US programmers have a large salary advantage compared with other industries. Then US salaries have an advantage compared with other countries and regions. These spillovers benefit people from near to far: the closer you are to them, the more you benefit.

For friends who want to know more, I recommend a book: 美国创新简史 – 科技如何助推经济增长 (A Brief History of American Innovation: How Technology Drives Economic Growth).

The industries with the most technological content today are probably computer science and biomedicine. In the future, there will also be aerospace, represented by Starship, and new energy, represented by controlled nuclear fusion. In these fields, the US is also temporarily leading. This is the present and the future.

In fact, previous Japan-US and Europe-US competition, although trade wars were fierce, ultimately decided victory through technological industry development. For example, Japan. In those days, automobiles, semiconductors, and electronics beat the US and Europe badly. Japan’s GDP per capita exceeded Europe and the US by quite a bit. But after the 1990s, the US internet, and the mobile internet ten years later, Japan fell behind. This is also the direct cause of Japan’s lost 30 years. Europe also lost similarly. When the EU was founded in the early 2000s, it had huge potential. Not only was Western Europe’s GDP per capita higher than the US, its total economy was also larger than the US. But after the financial crisis, it never recovered and lost 15 years. GDP per capita was left behind by the US, total GDP was left behind by the US, and it was even briefly surpassed by China. Europe has since become Europoor. Biomedicine is similar, but I am not in the industry, so I will not expand.

In fact, Ireland’s strong development, with GDP per capita and income per capita now among the world’s top 5, is largely because it accepted American value spillover. Such high per capita income is supported by foreign capital, especially US capital. The pillar industries are also IT and medicine. Ireland is tiny, with only 5 million people. When the US eats meat, giving Ireland a little soup is enough to fill it. Ireland can receive so much American spillover for many reasons. The most important is that, because of history, a large number of Irish people immigrated to the US. As the saying goes, the country with the most Irish people in the world is not Ireland, but the US. This closeness in blood and culture makes capital favor it more easily.

For a longer-term, more macro, and deeper perspective and understanding, see A Global History: From Prehistory to the 21st Century and my review. TLDR: science and technology are the primary productive forces; liberalism safeguards the development of science and technology; democracy safeguards freedom.

Because of human greed, as time passes, unequal distribution is inevitable. It can be slowed, but cannot be eliminated. It is human nature. Under limited resources, wealth continuously concentrates, eventually causing social instability and collapse. This is also the root cause of dynastic cycles. Only through development, making the pie bigger, can social contradictions be solved and alleviated. Fortunately, modern human civilization has found the correct path and method. Looking back over the past 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 years, technology is developing faster and faster, exponentially.

This book also explains the deeper reasons for American technological leadership. Influenced by the European Enlightenment, the Founding Fathers created a new political system in the New World. This system was very advanced not only more than 200 years ago, but even today. Friends interested in the American system and related history can read Lin Da’s “Looking at America Up Close” series: The Worries Deep in History, The President Is Unreliable, I Too Have a Dream, and Like a Comet Across the Night Sky. The author is Chinese, experienced the Cultural Revolution, and later settled in the US. Therefore, the books understand and study the US from a Chinese perspective, using many examples and written as letters to friends. It feels like listening to stories and is very easy to read.

This is also why China must pursue industrial upgrading to cross the middle-income trap and strive to become a developed country. Of course, China faces many obstacles and difficulties in industrial upgrading. I leave that for readers to think about themselves.

Combining the “spillover premium theory” above, I summarized my own “slacking theory.”

In November this year, OpenAI staged a drama in which the board removed CEO Sam Altman. During the process, major shareholder Microsoft tried to absorb Altman with a high salary. In the end, with employee support, the CEO returned and the old board dissolved. The whole process was full of twists and turns, lasting almost a week, making tech-world spectators exclaim that it was as exciting as the Netflix series Silicon Valley.

Because Microsoft participated and was an important character, its stock fluctuated accordingly and finally ended with a big rise. Microsoft strengthened its influence over OpenAI, especially over its employees.

Although OpenAI released ChatGPT 3.5 at the end of last year, AI’s impact continued throughout this year. Microsoft, because it took the lead in this field, unexpectedly surpassed Google, which had long been leading before. Microsoft’s stock performance this year was very impressive: 56% for the year, beating the S&P 500’s 25%, roughly the same as Nasdaq-100’s 55%. Google was actually not bad either. Of course, the more impressive one was shovel-seller Nvidia, up 244% this year.

By contrast, another major event this year was the Israel-Gaza war starting in late October. Israel also has many tech industries, including two thousand Microsoft employees. The whole office basically stopped for half a month, and production only gradually recovered later. Overall, there was nearly one month of productivity loss. My department was also among them. But I unexpectedly found that thousands of people not working had basically no impact on the company. The stock price had no impact either. Whether I personally slack off, or even disappear for half a year, it may have some impact on the department, but not much; for the company, basically no impact; for the world, no difference at all.

From a company’s development to human civilization, it is actually a small number of excellent people who drive things forward. For example, in academia, most papers are padding. After certain key papers appear and prove success or correctness, many previous papers become trash. Of course, only in hindsight do we know which people and technologies will succeed. At the time, we do not know. Therefore, it is necessary for many people to explore and try. Scale effects and supporting many people are useful. To obtain that 1% breakthrough, it must emerge from the work of 100% of people. Similarly, Darwin’s theory of evolution maintains biological and population diversity because environmental changes cannot be predicted. Even if environmental changes could be predicted, it would still be hard for humans to correctly select individuals. We can only let facts and time speak, and see who survives. Human genome tracing also found that Adam and Eve did exist in some sense: many genes of other individuals from that time disappeared. This also explains from one angle why planned economies fail and are completely defeated by market economies.

But for individuals, although you do not know whether you are in that 1%, probabilistically, you most likely are not. Therefore, individuals actually do not need to work that hard. They only need to benefit from others’ spillovers. Being born human already lets you enjoy a large premium of human civilization compared with animals. Being born in modern times lets you enjoy a large premium of industrial civilization compared with our hunter-gatherer ancestors or agricultural predecessors. Look at life expectancy and per-capita energy consumption. Being born in a developed country makes this even more obvious: more opportunities, easier work, and more money.

Of course, individuals should not do nothing. We cannot change birth, but many acquired factors are still under our control. Platform and macro environment are very important for personal success. Choice is more important than effort. Immigration, for example, is one choice one can make.

As for how to make better choices, one needs to improve cognition and vision, eliminate prejudice, and transcend class and family limitations. My method is actually simple:

Read ten thousand books, travel ten thousand miles, and talk with ten thousand people.

Reading ten thousand books eliminates differences in time. Traveling ten thousand miles eliminates differences in space. Talking with ten thousand people eliminates differences in class and life experience.

More specifically, see my review of Nolan’s new film this year, Oppenheimer.

You also need the ability to benefit from spillover value, such as immigration, slacking off in a big company, and working with excellent people. These still have some thresholds.

This is why one should immigrate to developed countries, especially the US, and especially areas where the US tech industry is concentrated: for oneself and for descendants, so that one can benefit from more excellent people and technological development without working that hard. Physically moving to benefit from the premium is still somewhat challenging, troublesome, and messy. Another easier and faster method is to directly buy stocks. Especially the US stock market is very open, and everyone can enjoy the benefits brought by technological development. Unlike the A-share market, which is used for fundraising and harvesting retail investors. As the saying goes: “Believe in national destiny; DCA into Nasdaq.” The US stock experience is also very friendly: long bulls, short bears, tested over the long term. This year is especially so: the broad-market S&P 500 rose 25%, recovered last year’s losses, and reached a new high.

Buying stocks requires opening a broker account. For friends in Europe, I recommend Trade Republic, which uses euros for buying and selling. Cash also has 4% interest, better than leaving it in the bank. It is held at Citibank Germany, with 100,000 euros of deposit insurance. Another more powerful platform, with more features, more stock markets, and usable in most countries globally, is IBKR, also the choice of many experts, but its operating threshold is slightly higher and is especially suitable for advanced users. I basically only buy broad-market index ETFs, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and hold long term. This is also recommended by the FIRE movement, Financial Independence, Retire Early. Long-term holding tests mindset. You need faith in the asset you invest in to keep holding and DCA through market fluctuations. For example, investing in the broad-market S&P 500 requires faith in the US; buying Nasdaq 100 requires faith in technology. Friends interested in financial independence can refer to Early Retirement Extreme: A Philosophical and Practical Guide to Financial Independence.

We can find that, whether for the US or for human civilization, science and technology are the most important driving forces. How lucky we are to live in industrial civilization. Our quality of life is so high. Humanity’s stars shine so brightly now. This is the best era in history, and it will get better and better. If you lack confidence, read Stefan Zweig’s Decisive Moments in History. It counts as a success book in my “slacking theory.”

This way of thinking is also different from my thoughts over the past 27 years. Therefore, this year is also the first year that I escaped the identity and mindset of the “small-town exam taker.” I no longer blindly grind problems, work intensively on one tiny plot of land, and compete inwardly. Instead, I discovered a bigger world. Slack off to learn, to improve myself, rather than work hard. The efficiency and results are actually better. That is, use strategic diligence to replace tactical effort. It is also a path to success without “working hard.”

Work

Combining the thoughts above, the long-term direction remains unchanged: first survive in Ireland and get status, then go to the US for development.

Because US immigration status is risky. If one becomes unemployed, there is a possibility of being forced to leave.

L1B is tied to the employer and cannot be used for job hopping. H1B requires a lottery and has the risk of not being selected. US green card queues are based on birthplace; for Chinese people, the wait may now be 10 years.

For immigrants abroad, status is extremely important, often more important than making money. Irish status is very easy and friendly, and quite powerful. It can serve as a good fallback and safety net. If I get an E-3 visa in the future, it will be even more convenient to work in the US.

Next year, either I can transfer back to the original team and return to the happy rest & vest life. If I cannot transfer back, once I get permanent residency in September, I will directly switch companies. Everyone should be careful when working for Jewish managers; they are even more intense than Chinese managers.

In addition, although I had heard about it before, one field I encountered more this year is “quant,” Quant Dev, a famous high-paying track. I met many excellent students in it, and it really makes people jealous. Next year I will learn more about it and see whether I have any chance to get a share.

Body

This year counts as my first year of fitness. When I was in China before, although I had gym memberships and tried fitness, I did not persist because of time and energy. Starting in March this year, because the company office has a gym and all kinds of free classes, it is very convenient, and I finally formed the habit of paid fitness during work hours.

My body is indeed much better, my energy is higher, and my mood is much better. Various muscle groups also have outlines: chest and back, six-pack abs, glutes and legs.

Looking back, many of my habits, skills, and achievements were actually achieved by slacking off. I understand Liu Cixin a little.

Once a habit is formed, it becomes easy to persist. In the new year, and for the rest of my life, fitness will be a long-term habit. For habits, I recommend Atomic Habits, which starts from principles and methods to eliminate bad habits and cultivate good ones. I myself have an ISFJ personality. The J type is relatively planned and action-oriented. Therefore, cultivating habits is not difficult for me; it suits me well.

Life

Since I have already decided to give Ireland a chance, I should take it seriously.

This year I bought a used Toyota Corolla, my first car in life.

Next year:

  • Get an Irish driver’s license.
  • Buy an apartment. Renting in Dublin is too expensive, and the price-to-rent ratio is decent. It is worthwhile either for living or investment.
  • Get a US B1/B2 tourist visa and go travel in the US. Last week I went to the US embassy for the visa interview. As expected, I was checked: 221g Administrative Processing. It did not disappoint my alma mater’s expectations: “virtue and talent, knowledge and action as one.” Sensitive school plus sensitive major. Hope the check passes next year, though it is said they may only give at most one year.

Afterword

Being born human, I am very lucky.

I hope everyone can be safe, healthy, and happy in the new year, and realize their wishes and dreams.